Manny’s Reviews > Rational Decisions > Status Update

Manny
Manny is on page 160 of 224
An extreme form of Bayesianism holds that scientists actually do use some form of Bayesian updating when revising a theory, but that they are unconscious of doing so. This notion has been put to me with great urgency on several occasions, but you might as well seek to persuade me that fairies live at the bottom of my garden.
Jun 17, 2021 09:24PM
Rational Decisions (The Gorman Lectures in Economics)

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Manny’s Previous Updates

Manny
Manny is on page 190 of 224
Well, I can't decide if that really was a satisfactory punchline. Maybe it takes a while to get the joke?
Jun 20, 2021 05:54AM
Rational Decisions (The Gorman Lectures in Economics)


Manny
Manny is on page 100 of 224
You have to admire Binmore's breadth. Hands up everyone who's seen another book which spends significant time discussing both empathy and Kolmogorov's axiomatisation of probability theory.
Jun 14, 2021 01:40AM
Rational Decisions (The Gorman Lectures in Economics)


Manny
Manny is on page 70 of 224
Setting the utility of one's death to -∞ is nonsensical, because then no one would take any risks at all. In fact, empirical studies of preferences revealed by driving behaviour suggest that most people value their lives at under ten million dollars.
Jun 13, 2021 01:20AM
Rational Decisions (The Gorman Lectures in Economics)


Manny
Manny is on page 50 of 224
The Prisoner's Dilemma teaches the important lesson that rationality need not be good for a society. However, the response that we should therefore junk the orthodox theory in favor of some notion of collective rationality makes no sense. One might as well propose abandoning arithmetic because two loaves and seven fishes won't feed a multitude.
Jun 10, 2021 05:15PM
Rational Decisions (The Gorman Lectures in Economics)


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message 1: by Rob (new)

Rob Squires Well a reductionist review like that certainly begs the question... 🤣


Manny His basic criticism is that people are too happy to apply Bayesian methods even in situations where there are no clear intuitions about where the priors come from. I will have more to say when I've finished!


message 3: by Rob (new)

Rob Squires I was being sarcastic...to the best book reviewer ever! Yeah, I know, sarcasm often gets lost in comments... 🙄


Manny Aw, thank you Rob! You might like Binmore, he is also fond of the sarcastic approach :)


message 5: by Michael (new)

Michael Perkins rational decisions are hard to come by...

https://thebaffler.com/latest/what-do...


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