Drew Saxton’s Reviews > Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment > Status Update

"People tend to trust and like leaders who are firm and clear and who seem to know, immediately and deep in their bones, what is right. Such leaders inspire confidence. But the evidence suggests that if the goal is to reduce error, it is better for leaders (and others) to remain open to counterarguments and to know that they might be wrong. If they end up being decisive, it is at the end of a process, not the start."

"Like any other unsurprising story, a success story explains itself once the outcome is known. We do, however, feel a need to explain abnormal outcomes: the bad ones, and occasionally, the surprisingly good ones. Explanations that appeal to error or to special flair are far more popular than they deserve to be, because important gambles of the past easily become acts of genius or folly when their outcome is known."

"In general, we jump to conclusions, then stick to them. We think we base our opinions on evidence, but the evidence we consider and our interpretation of it are likely to be distorted, at least to some extent, to fit our initial snap judgment. As a result, we maintain the coherence of the overall story that has emerged in our mind." p. 173 Excessive Coherence