Score

Nobel Pool Scoreboard [Updated 10/21/2015]

Aubrey: +26
Dustin: +26
Nathan Long: +26
Traveller: +26
Paul: +26
Samadrita: +24
Kaion: +22

Where are Josipovici and Vollmann? (My perennial question.)

Can you please clarify if this list is just a list of authors that anyone thinks are worthy of it, or if it's a list of authors that are known to be in contention, such as Australia's Gerald Murnane?

Really nice list! It's always hard to differentiate between those you think will win and those you think are likely to. I've voted for those I think should win.

If we're talking likelihood then the author has to have a strong body of works, the prize is never awarded for one brilliant book alone. Also there seem to be some consideration taken as to not give the prize to the same geographical location several years running (although this applies less to Europe than anywhere else). The same goes for genre of literature.

So it seems quite unlikely that a woman from North America who writes short stories, such as Lydia Davis, should be given the prize, when Alice Munro got is so recently.

The odds for Atwood and Oates seem somewhat lower by the same account.

Lisa wrote: "Can you please clarify if this list is just a list of authors that anyone thinks are worthy of it, or if it's a list of authors that are known to be in contention, such as Australia's Gerald Murnane?"

As mentioned in the intro, the official list of nominees for any given year is kept secret for 50 years, along with any notes of the process of the Committee. So it would be difficult ascertain definitely who is nominated on a yearly basis, or among those, who is a strong contender ("the shortlist").

As such, most speculation about who will win/has a chance to win the Nobel in literature is just that -- speculation. So I left it purposefully vague so people can judge to vote for who they think will/should win as to their own wherewithal. The distinction hardly matters unless one is on the Committee (or an oddsmaker), to my thinking.

Jeff wrote: "Where are Josipovici and Vollmann? (My perennial question.)"

You tell me.

Leajk wrote: "Really nice list! It's always hard to differentiate between those you think will win and those you think are likely to. I've voted for those I think should win.

If we're talking likelihood then t..."

I gathered that, though they don't seem to have the same qualms about awarding white dudes from Europe all the time.

I made the list because I was interested in being introduced to more contemporary/international writers that were outside my usual purview, and researching Nobel contenders seemed like a good way to do so. I read a lot of articles and message topics to compile the list. Writers on my list appear so due to an unscientific combination of the following factors:

1) They appeared on every list.
2) They are "favorites."
3) They are "likely."
4) They are not necessarily well-known. (I figured Murakami and Atwood and the like will appear anyway, and don't need the signal boost. Also, neither seem to have good chances based on Academy trends.)

But most importantly:
5) Their work sounds interesting to me. (Sorry Roth.)

Realistic chances speaking -- Adichie is WAY too young. Le Guin is probably too genre. But who cares.

My concern is more that the list will become all best-selling novelists that write in English.

Kaion wrote: "Leajk wrote: "Really nice list! It's always hard to differentiate between those you think will win and those you think are likely to. I've voted for those I think should win.

If we're talking lik..."

I'm glad to hear this list is open to personally considered names, Kaion, mostly because I added quite a few without checking with you first and would hate to delete them. I also agree with you in regards to Adichie and Le Guin, but I have hope for future standards of the prize that have not yet been encompassed by the past.

Kaion wrote: "Leajk wrote: "Really nice list! It's always hard to differentiate between those you think will win and those you think are likely to. I've voted for those I think should win.

If we're talking lik..."

"I gathered that, though they don't seem to have the same qualms about awarding white dudes from Europe all the time."

That's so true! I had a quite heated debate within the Nobel Prize group here on GR with a dude who thought it was completely legitimate that mostly white men from Europe won it. I think it ended with him saying I hadn't really grasped Mondrian in high school and probably mostly read comic books anyways.

Who the prize goes to and who it should really go to are, as is often debated here in Sweden, two completely different things.

(lol@Roth)

Aubrey wrote: "Kaion wrote: "Leajk wrote: "Really nice list! It's always hard to differentiate between those you think will win and those you think are likely to. I've voted for those I think should win.

If we'..."

Yeah, I have an especially dislike for lists that don't allow additions. That seems to be the whole strength of a voting list. (And there's a whole other option for fixed lists no one ever seems to use.)


Leajk wrote: "Kaion wrote: "Leajk wrote: "Really nice list! It's always hard to differentiate between those you think will win and those you think are likely to. I've voted for those I think should win.

If we'..."

A lot of these Nobel speculation articles seem to discuss prospects only in terms of national pride, and rarely mention more than a few of the same authors outside of the English or European sphere. (That's why I thought crowd-sourcing might yield more interesting/eclectic results.)

I think if the Nobel wants to stay relevant, it has to branch out beyond the "white men from Europe" group. Winners from the last few decades suggest that the Academy is aware of this. Doris Lessing even openly wrote science fiction!

Not that it will happen because he's American and Jewish, but Philip Roth's American Pastoral should be at the top of the list.

Feel free to add him if you feel that way, Arnie.

Svetlana Alexievich, author of Voices from Chernobyl: The Oral History of a Nuclear Disaster has won the 2015 Nobel Prize for Literature.

Points to Nathan, Traveller, Paul, Dustin, Aubrey, Samadrita, and myself for having her on their lists.

Kaion wrote: "Svetlana Alexievich, author of Voices from Chernobyl: The Oral History of a Nuclear Disaster has won the 2015 Nobel Prize for Literature.

Points to Nathan, Traveller..."

Ha ha! :D

Kaion wrote: "Svetlana Alexievich, author of Voices from Chernobyl: The Oral History of a Nuclear Disaster has won the 2015 Nobel Prize for Literature.

Points to Nathan, Traveller..."

Wow I'm really surprised, because everyone in Sweden has been saying that she will win, she was one of the favorites last year, and that usually means that they won't win. But cool!

I'm tempted to start a scoreboard and make this a real betting pool, but I haven't figured out how. Should people get points for winning other awards? Lose points for deaths? It's all very mathy.

Kaion wrote: "I'm tempted to start a scoreboard and make this a real betting pool, but I haven't figured out how. Should people get points for winning other awards? Lose points for deaths? It's all very mathy."

You should totally do that! Only points for the person winning the correct year though. Or possibly you could rank you top 5 and get points in accordance to their position, otherwise you'll just hedge your bets by voting for 100 authors.

Okay, this is how I'm rolling with the point scoring, which will only take into account your top ten votes:

Base points for the new laureate in your top ten:
+20 points for a first-position win
+18 for a second-position
... etc, down to
+10 for a tenth-position

A maximum of 20 "dark-horse" points will be given by the following formula:
+ (# of total participants/# of winning ballots)

Penalities:
-5 for not following directions

Bonus, applying to all your votes, not just the top ten:
+20 for having the sole vote for the new laureate
_______________________________________

Scoreboard:

2015 Laureate - Svetlana Alexandrovna Alexievich
Bonus: +6 (41 participants/7 winning ballots = 5.86)

Aubrey: +26
Dustin: +26
Nathan Long: +26
Traveller: +26
Paul: +26
Samadrita: +24
Kaion: +22
Farhan -5
Sentimental Surrealist -5
the gift -5
Hanneke -5

*Deductions incurred for Susan Sontag and Harry Mulisch being, you know, dead.

Kaion wrote: "Okay, this is how I'm rolling with the point scoring, which will only take into account your top ten votes:

Base points for the new laureate in your top ten:
+20 points for a first-position win
..."

Ha ha! This is exciting.

Kaion wrote: "Okay, this is how I'm rolling with the point scoring, which will only take into account your top ten votes:

Base points for the new laureate in your top ten:
+20 points for a first-position win
..."

Nice scoring system!

Are we going to be making another one of these? Or should we just add and update for 2016?

I was just going to add and update for 2016. *shrug* I can't believe it's that time of year already!

Well, this certainly makes for easy scoring.

+40 to the Academy for trolling the rest of us

Kaion wrote: "Well, this certainly makes for easy scoring.

+40 to the Academy for trolling the rest of us"

I don't think my soul could take it if they troll us again this year, so I'm going to vote and hope.

Looks like the third pointless year in a row. This is the world's easiest betting pool to run. :)

Retired Contenders:
13. Buchi Emecheta (1944-2017)
77. W.S. Merwin (1927-2019)

Alright, finally some movement on the board, as this award slides itself into further irrelevancy.

Do you have faith in the reestablished board after all the sexual
harassment scandal? How you feel about Handke's genocide denial? (Judging by the lack of votes, none of y'all are into his literature at any rate.)

2018 Laureate - Olga Tokarczuk (Removed at rank 44, with a score of 187)
Bonus: +31 (61 participants/2 winning entries)

2019 Laureate - Peter Handke
War criminals: +10

To honor this round's retirees, and get more people on the board, I'm giving +3 for each retiree.
20. Amos Oz (1939-2018)
33. William Trevor (1928-2016)
48. Karel Schoeman (1939-2017)
57. Nicanor Parra (1914-2018!!!!)
63. Stephen Hawking (1942-2018)
64. Juan Goytisolo (1931-2017)
70. Torgny Lindgren (1938-2017)
78. Les Murray (1938-2019)
82. Claribel Alegría (1924-2018)
____________

Updated scoreboard
Antonomasia: +48
Michael: +39
Kaion: 22+12 = 34
Aubrey: 26
Dustin: 26
Nathan Long: 26
Traveller: 26
Paul: 26
Samadrita: 24
Robert: +9
Bettie: +6
Sue: +3
Booklovinglady: +3
Kyle: +3
Michael Rieman: +3
Lazarus: +3
Chris: +3
Jonathan: +3
Farhan: -5+3 = -2
Hanneke: -5+3 = -2
Sentimental Surrealist: -5
the gift: -5